It is generally accepted that the January transfer window is a high risk one, but some clubs may be driven to it by desperation. There is a lot at stake. This year’s £40m minimum payout is expected to stand between £55m and £60m next season and that is before one counts the benefits of higher attendances and more lucrative sponsorship deals.
It is generally accepted that the January transfer window is a high risk one, but some clubs may be driven to it by desperation. There is a lot at stake. This year’s £40m minimum payout is expected to stand between £55m and £60m next season and that is before one counts the benefits of higher attendances and more lucrative sponsorship deals.
Nevertheless, the odds are loaded against concluding a deal that improves a club in the long term. Unless they have serious financial problems, most clubs are not going to sell their best players mid-season. Better players on their way up are reluctant to join a relegation threatened clubs or insist on release clauses which mean they usually have to be sold at a loss. Prices for what quality is available can rise to high levels.
For all these drawbacks, spending in the January window has increased well above the rate of inflation, but there have been big fluctuations over time. Between 2004 and 2007 spending was in the £50m-£70m range, having started from a baseline of £35m in 2003. There was then a big leap to £175m in 2008, maintained at £170m in 2009.
The last three years has seen the biggest fluctuations. Spending was the lowest ever at just £30m in 2010, then rose to £225m in 2011 before falling back to £60m in 2012. Of course, the figures can be affected by a relatively small number of big deals.
Relatively little goes to Football League clubs, fluctuating between £5m and a peak of £20m in 2007. Although there are annual variations, most of the money is split roughly equally between other Barclays Premier League clubs and overseas clubs.
It’s always hazardous to forecast which clubs are going to splash out and which are going to hold on to their money, in part because a big sale can release extra funds. However, some clubs do not really need to buy and will only do so if a really good opportunity comes along. Norwich and Swansea come to mind. Others are short of money or reluctant to spend, e.g., Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United, West Bromwich Albion. Stoke are interested in younger signings to lower the average age of the team.
Sunderland are also reluctant to spend after committing substantial funds in the window, but are one club that could take panic measures. QPR say they do not have much money, but may well end up spending.
Fulham have a good budget after late August sales and arguably need to spend given a poor run which leaves four points off the relegation places. Newcastle United are also not safe and have said they will spend £12m, possibly more, for a striker. Wigan will go up to £4m for the right player, but are also looking for loan deals and cut price signings. Reading may find it difficult to make a value signing. Southampton have up to £6m available to strengthen their defence.
Manchester City are looking at a clear out and Manchester United are cautious in the January window. Chelsea could yet throw caution to the winds. There is real uncertainty about how much Arsenal will commit or what Aston Villa will do in the face of a growing crisis.