The demographics of daring to dream

Brentford (3rd) and Bournemouth (4th) are the two surprise packages of the Championship so far this season.  At the start of the season, Brentford fans would probably have settled for consolidation in the division with a lower mid-table position being seen as good enough.  Four Four Two forecast that they would be 22nd and one could get 12-1 on them being promoted at the beginning of the season and just 7/2 on relegation.

Brentford (3rd) and Bournemouth (4th) are the two surprise packages of the Championship so far this season.  At the start of the season, Brentford fans would probably have settled for consolidation in the division with a lower mid-table position being seen as good enough.  Four Four Two forecast that they would be 22nd and one could get 12-1 on them being promoted at the beginning of the season and just 7/2 on relegation.

Bournemouth fans could be a little more optimistic with odds on 16-1 on being relegated and 6-1 on promotion.   Four Four Two had them finishing 11th, judging that they lacked ‘the massive financial oomph to draw really big names or retain their stars … their key assets are still unity, teamwork and [manager] Howe’s magic touch.’

Bournemouth’s history is that of a relatively small club who have looked at times as if they might go out of business.    Last season their average attendance of 9,952 was the lowest in the second tier.  Now they have a Russian co-owner, Maxim Demin who may have made a shrewd investment of just £850,000 in what he once described as a ‘rustic club, a bit of a backwater.’

Bournemouth’s reputation is that of a seaside resort with a high retired population, albeit offset by lots of language schools and a post 1992 university.   However, the demographics are changing.   More than 400,000 people live in the Bournemouth area and they are comparatively well paid.  The town is now one of the most youthful, fastest growing and most affluent in the country with the millionaires’ paradise at Sandbanks nearby.

Brentford are located in one of the less fashionable parts of West London, but their planned relocation to Lionel Road South will enable them to tap into a more affluent clientele whilst retaining their core support.   

However, if they do get promoted, their current Griffin Park ground poses a problem.  It does not meet the standards the Premier League requires for its clubs.   Brentford think they might be able to come up with some quick fixes, but they could end up having to ground share for two seasons, possibly at Reading or at the rugby ground at Twickenham Stoop.

In some ways Brentford face a bigger challenge than Reading because of the competitive nature of the London football market.   Rivals QPR and Fulham are very close, as are Chelsea.   Before the Second World War, Brentford did make it to the top flight, finisihing 5th in one season.

But then Bournemouth faces the challenge of local football fans going to Southampton or to support London clubs.  Both clubs would probably benefit from a few more years in the Championship, but one understands why their fans dare to dream.  Certainly both clubs have potential to build their fan base.