Michael Laudrup was upset about the manner of his sacking from Swansea City and the lack of explanation given to him. During the week he was threatening legal action, although these matters are usually eventually settled out of court.
Swansea City’s 3-0 victory over Cardiff City yesterday might seem to justify the sacking, but it has to be remembered that usually any new coach gives his side a boost, but this is not often sustained for more than three matches.
Michael Laudrup was upset about the manner of his sacking from Swansea City and the lack of explanation given to him. During the week he was threatening legal action, although these matters are usually eventually settled out of court.
Swansea City’s 3-0 victory over Cardiff City yesterday might seem to justify the sacking, but it has to be remembered that usually any new coach gives his side a boost, but this is not often sustained for more than three matches.
However, the Fink Tank over at The Times claim to have worked out a model for predicting managerial sackings with Laudrup topping the table, followed by Sam Allardyce at West Ham, although presumably his position has been boosted by yesterday’s away win at Aston Villa.
Developing a paper first published in 2006, they have developed an ‘accelerated failure time model’. This looks more like econometrics than statistics and is therefore beyond my capabilities to assess, even if I had the full paper.
Some of it seems a bit obvious, i.e., if your team is below fifteenth, you are more likely to be sacked. The contrast with the previous season matters, but in terms of points per game rather than final position. It also seems there is a sacking season with December the key month. That seems quite reasonable as it is long enough in the season to assess matters, but not too late to try and retrieve them.
David Moyes comes third in the list. However, it would be difficult to imagine the regime at Manchester United sacking him after such a short period of time, although he needs to beat Fulham this afternoon to shore up his position.
The fashion for frequent sackings does cost clubs a lot of money in compensation. But for out of work managers there is the consolation that there will be another vacancy along in a minute, although in practice many of those removed never find another job.