Each summer Four Four Two makes a forecast of where all 92 teams are likely to end up at the end of the season. It’s all dreamt up by journalists at their computers and not to be taken too seriously. In the year that Charlton got promoted from League One, the forecast was that they would end up near the relegation positions.
Each summer Four Four Two makes a forecast of where all 92 teams are likely to end up at the end of the season. It’s all dreamt up by journalists at their computers and not to be taken too seriously. In the year that Charlton got promoted from League One, the forecast was that they would end up near the relegation positions.
Soccermetrics reports the results of a more serious attempt to forecast this year’s Premier League outcomes. They managed to get the top six teams in the right order, perhaps not that difficult, although they thought that it should have been tighter between Chelsea and Manchester City.
The teams that did better than expected were Southampton, Crystal Palace, Stoke City and West Bromwich Albion. Southampton faded towards the end of the season and a Europa League place depends on Arsenal winning the FA Cup. Crystal Palace benefitted from the arrival of Alan Pardew as did the Baggies with Tony Pulis. Stoke got their highest ever points total in the Premier League.
Their most controversial forecast was West Ham in 9th and a second half of the season fade saw them end up in the bottom half. Sam Allerdyce was duly sent packing amid comments that he was an old fashioned type of manager. His record at the Boleyn Ground has been far from bad, but sports journalist David Conn cynically tweeted that West Ham wanted a prestige manager for their prestige ground, paid for by the rest of us. Landing that manager may not be so easy even with the lure of the Olympic Stadium.
Another relatively technical article reviews 60 different predictions. The basic message is that the Premier League is not as predictable as one might think.