Who will the Champions League final? A group of academics who work on football think that they have devised a group of statistical indicators that will give them the answer. The story below is based on a statement they sent us.
Who will the Champions League final? A group of academics who work on football think that they have devised a group of statistical indicators that will give them the answer. The story below is based on a statement they sent us.
Work by the Professional Football Players Observatory (PFPO) suggest that Inter is more likely to claim victory in the Champions League final. With the exception of the percentage of new signings, where a low rate is synonymous with competitive advantage, teams with higher values than their opponents have a better chance of winning.
The first table on their website presents data on all players in the squad, independently from time spent on the pitch. The second table, accessible by clicking on the first one, weights the indicators according to the real employment of footballers. On the day of the final, the PFPO will add a third table that will only take into account players announced in the starting eleven.
Compared to Bayern, Inter has more experienced players, a greater percentage of expatriates and a more stable squad. Their footballers have spent on average more than four seasons in the first team. Since 2006, all the clubs having won the competition have fielded footballers who had been playing in the club for more than four seasons. This is not yet the case for Bayern.
The only data in the German team’s favour is that they have already managed to eject Manchester United from the tournament [no small achievement, ed] Like Inter, the English side had more experienced players and a more stable roster than the Bavarian club.
It will be interesting to see if their prediction comes true. The PFPO is a research group made up of academics from the International Centre for Sport Studies (University of Neuchâtel), the Sport Science Institute (University of Lausanne) and the THéMA Laboratory (University of Franche-Comté).