This article offers an interesting look at what is happening to football attendances, arguing that they are stagnating in England and falling in some other European countries. The writer also argues that, in effect, some clubs have gone for ‘vanity’ stadiums which they can never really fill and does not create a good atmosphere.
This article offers an interesting look at what is happening to football attendances, arguing that they are stagnating in England and falling in some other European countries. The writer also argues that, in effect, some clubs have gone for ‘vanity’ stadiums which they can never really fill and does not create a good atmosphere.
In many ways, however, attendances have held up well when one considers the squeeze on incomes produced by inflation that has outstripped wage increases for those in work – and many are not or are working part-time when they would like a full-time job. It is evident that, at least for hard core supporters, demand for football is relatively inelastic, i.e., not very price sensitive. The writer of the article supports West Ham which has a strong away support.
If you are a keen football fan, continuing to follow your team in person is integral to your identity and lifestyle (whether it does any good for your well being is another matter). In the current recession, people have been spending less on food. Some of that is ‘trading down’ to a cheaper shop, but there has actually been a fall in the volume of food purchased.
So far, so good. But let’s think of some possible developments. The article makes the reasonable point that the rising cost of fuel has hit those who go to away games hard, even if they car share, as many do. Train fares have also gone up above the rate of inflation.
There is now some nervousness about the possible development of a nuclear device by Iran and the possibility of military action either by the United States or by Israel or by both. These concerns have already pushed up the oil price on global markets. If military action occurred in these oil producing region, oil could increase to $200 a barrel from around $113 today.
Exactly how this would affect the pump price is not easy to calculate, but it could go up by 75 per cent. How would fans cope with that? There would also, of course, be a more general increase in inflation. This is probably not an immediate threat, as I cannot see the US acting before the 2012 presidential election, although Israel could always go it alone.
Indeed, even without a crisis in Iran, it is estimated that the price of a barrel of oil could go up to $150 a barrel because of increased demand from emerging countries against the background of a relatively fixed supply, although a renewed global recession could offset that.
A more immediate threat is the eurozone crisis. Exactly how it will play out remains to be seen, but it is likely to trigger a new recessionary downturn in continental Europe which in turn would affect Britain substantially. Government might have to increase taxes further and make additional cuts in services.
Football might find it difficult to escape the effects of a new downturn having been largely recession proof up to now, certainly compared with the leisure industry generally – a number of pubs, clubs and hotels have gone or are likely to go into administration.
In other words, you ain’t see nothing yet.